Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 20.382734 24.514827 29.058573 34.397942 40.471617 47.136898 54.974842
2025-09-14 13.872595 19.145159 25.546407 33.767250 43.914147 55.895432 70.969326
2025-09-21 10.760969 16.563127 24.166142 34.590411 48.220577 65.136921 87.387536
2025-09-28 7.868997 13.485393 21.404465 32.938400 48.816659 69.394032 97.499252
2025-10-05 6.598459 12.360603 20.981589 34.146229 52.994166 78.218290 113.629700
2025-10-12 5.533239 11.296791 20.418014 34.966580 56.543430 86.250561 128.962624
2025-10-19 4.654562 10.337619 19.828770 35.595378 59.744110 93.850106 143.934178
2025-10-26 3.996523 9.616133 19.484211 36.494290 63.306892 102.032090 159.952083
2025-11-02 3.247932 8.552589 18.397683 36.056940 64.750207 107.167924 171.819183
2025-11-09 2.725692 7.815685 17.758185 36.243731 67.097204 113.644990 185.756565
2025-11-16 2.234284 7.020236 16.884822 35.913106 68.543776 118.778096 197.859408
2025-11-23 1.756656 6.121547 15.668280 34.828162 68.638598 121.798723 206.884253
2025-11-30 1.492220 5.707318 15.418934 35.582518 72.031313 130.352634 224.980326
2025-12-07 1.159431 5.001245 14.451509 34.906278 72.969878 135.157860 237.693876
2025-12-14 0.985949 4.691154 14.290850 35.748939 76.570404 144.316906 257.362758
2025-12-21 0.710103 3.929665 12.942547 34.053654 75.499423 145.816659 265.129420
2025-12-28 0.620651 3.773787 13.023103 35.293061 79.818198 156.320099 287.364065
2026-01-04 0.528127 3.563285 12.926062 36.134723 83.427282 165.752297 308.152481
2026-01-11 0.443121 3.339488 12.751302 36.779779 86.683179 174.685618 328.376066
2026-01-18 0.379149 3.174630 12.706546 37.701824 90.505976 184.702444 350.613838
2026-01-25 0.291952 2.835017 12.093423 37.253235 91.610201 190.042955 365.333669
2026-02-01 0.234781 2.610332 11.772009 37.444829 93.974816 197.641442 383.955688
2026-02-08 0.179453 2.343378 11.256866 37.105699 95.228681 203.294791 399.461894